Closing of IMP 2 Project
The team are working to complete the final two reports under the project. Specifically the GAINS Ireland model update report, and the requisite project final report. The two policy papers have also been submitted for publication. The final scenarios have also been completed and loaded into the updated GAINS Ireland model.
Presidency in the Year of Air
The team have provided sustained research support as part of the Irish presidency, in particular drafting research memos, meeting notes and supporting the DECLG through their research in connection with the WIPEI EU coordination efforts, WGSR meeting and related engagements. Research work includes analysis on a range of topics (e.g. cost-benefit, forecasting, and air quality target compliance).
Dr. Kelly also co-chaired with the European Commission (Scott Brockett) a workshop under Saltsjobaden V focused on determining recommendations for the future of European air policy. Scott Brockett is the team leader with responsibility for the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution revision within DG ENV of the European Commission. Saltsjobaden V Report
Air Science Policy Forum
The major ‘event’ in this recent phase was the preparation work, organisation and ex-post support in regards to the 'Air Science Policy Forum' held in Farmleigh in Dublin. This meeting was extremely successful and was followed-up with the Informal Council of Ministers meeting in Dublin where a presentation was prepared for delivery by Prof. Frank Convery. Over the entire project we have managed a number of such major engagements, including the NESC-UCD conference on non-emissions trading sectors, and the IIASA TSAP bilaterals. Air Science Policy Forum Dublin
Scenarios and Model Update
The team will have both 2012 and 2013 scenarios live in the model on completion of the project. In addition we have maintained the system in line with the latest developments made by IIASA throughout the project. This has included a major overhaul to a ‘version 3’ of the model in this recent phase. This shift to a new version involved a new model structure and a redesign of our system files for managing data collation and input. The update in the model was to allow for code improvements by IIASA and to extend the scope and detail of certain sectors.
In terms of updates to GAINS Ireland, a technical report logging the key changes in the current calibration of the model has been kept as we have progressed in this project, and this will be delivered on completion of the project.
We have maintained our international presence in this phase also with participation in an invitational TFHAP workshop in regards to developing global scenarios out to 2030. This offered some interesting insights on global modelling principally, with some useful discussions from an Irish perspective also.
Technical Model Update
IIASA have very recently ported to a new generation of the GAINS model. At present we – and they – are maintaining the older system, but we are beginning the process of converting our scenarios to the new model. This will require us to rebuild our own systems for aggregating, splitting and restructuring data for use in GAINS. The changes relate to increased disaggregation of certain sectors for activity, however, this also has knock-on effects for control strategy and emission vector calibration. Such shifts in the model are reasonably uncommon, but will occur as the limitations of an older structure present constraints that cannot otherwise be overcome.
Final 2012 Scenarios
In the lead-up to, and aftermath of, the bilateral there has been a body of work associated with determining the responses to the many IIASA queries, as well as working to find solutions for integrating certain national evidence into the model appropriately. This work has focused on transboundary air pollution. This has culminated in the final versions of our four 2012 national scenario variants being loaded into GAINS, as well as the suggested non-activity changes for IIASA's own PRIMES-based TSAP scenario. The PRIMES based scenario will be the main scenario used, however, the pre-loaded presence of our national scenario will allow this alternative to be considered in the process.
TSAP Scenarios and Bilateral
The major event in this phase was the preparation work, participation and ex-post research in regards to the 'Thematic Strategy on Air' (TSAP) scenarios that are being finalised for 2013 at IIASA. IIASA have been contracted by the Commission to build a European evaluation set of scenarios based on the PRIMES/CAPRI model data, but taking 'non-activity' input from member states. Micheal Young of the DECLG attended this meeting also, and valuable remote support was provided from Paul Duffy and Bernard Hyde.
There are two new papers in a research and development phase at the moment under the project. These papers will draw on a variety of data (e.g. census, household budget survey, own research) and methodologies (e.g. spatial mapping, econometric analysis) to examine a transport emissions abatement policy, as well as a broader paper on solid fuel regulation in Ireland. Future work on abatement options is particularly important in the sectors of transport, agriculture and residential. This work also offers value in terms of identifying potential improvements to parameters in the GAINS Ireland modelling research generally.