The Marginal Damage Value work for air pollutants has been designed into an A5 guidebook that will be released at a forthcoming event in September on Air Pollution policy in Ireland. The guidebook was used to inform an analysis of scenarios for the displacement of coal or other solid fuels in Ireland on behalf of the DECLG. Dr. Kelly will present this work at the event on September 28th.
Reporting, Paper and Presentation
The team will be reporting for the period to the end of June this month, and this process is underway.
In addition the team have received further data from Glen Dimplex which is being used to further develop the residential heating paper.
The team have also been asked by the DECLG to conduct some specific research of relevance to the smoky coal ban. An anniversary event is planned for the Autumn where Dr. Kelly will present a tailored piece of research specifically for that event. The research will draw upon GAINS Ireland, the Marginal Damage Value Guidebook and other research developed as part of the IMP Ireland project.
Marginal Damge Values and 2035 Scenarios
The team have completed their work on the marginal damage value guidebook and this is currently awaiting sign-off from the EPA and DECLG before being finalised and released. The plan will be to release this material in September.
The team have also assembled the draft 2015 version of Air and Climate Scenarios in GAINS Ireland. For the first time these scenarios extend to 2035. These are in the process of being checked and will then be used as part of the Irish TIMES link work whereby analysis from work by UCC is adapted into GAINS Ireland to offer indications of costs and impacts from both climate and air perspectives.
In May Dr. Kelly presented twice at the TFIAM meeting in Edinburgh. The first presentation related to an overview of the capacities in, and outlook for, Irish agriculture. The second presentation outlined the developing work on marginal damage valuations for air pollutants in Ireland. The latter presentation sought further feedback from experts in the field to refine this work.
MDV Progress and Open Data
The team continue to progress on the marginal damage valuation work and have received useful feedback from international colleagues in the field. Provisional values are being reviewed and further updates to methodology are planned.
In addition Dr. Kelly chaired and contributed to a NESC session on open data in April. This event brought together a broad selection of agencies, stakeholders and departments to discuss open environmental data in Ireland and was an extremely interesting and useful event. In particular some of the expected data sources and data systems into the future are expected to be of great value to the research conducted under the IMP Ireland project.
Air and Climate Presentations at EPA Events
Also in March the team will deliver two presentations in relation to the on-going IMP Ireland work. The first presentation on the 12th of March will address the future role of the GAINS Ireland project in the context of on-going research based decision support for air and climate policy in Ireland. The second presentation will focus on the recent role of the IMP Ireland team with regard to the TSAP revision process and the current outlook with respect to national negotiations in regard to the national emission ceilings that will be set for air pollutants in 2030.
Inventory revisions and ceiling proposals
Whilst continuing the recently noted work on the residential heating paper, the marginal damage function work and the Irish TIMES link, the team have also engaged recently on the revisions to the national inventory. The anticipated changes are expected to raise the calculated value of emissions, in particular in relation to the residential and commercial sectors for PM2.5 and VOCs. An internal briefing note is being prepared on this topic for the DECLG.
TSAP Negotiations, Glen Dimplex and TIMES link
As of the start of February, the team are balancing work across 4 of the research deliverables. In addition to the marginal damage function work, the team have further engagement with Glen Dimplex regarding the residential heating paper and hope to advance that work somewhat further.
The team have also been liaising with the Irish TIMES team regarding the linked climate air synergies piece that has been proposed.
Finally, the team have been requested to provide a detailed policy document to guide national engagement on the political negotiation of air targets under the EC TSAP framework. This latter work has been set as the priority for February.
Continuing Damage Function Work
The start of the new year has seen a number of the IMP project research deliverables make significant progress, and work continues on these. Up until March it is expected that the team will place a special focus on the marginal damage function research which has required a considerable investment of research time, data collection and analysis. Colleagues in Ireland and Internationally have been exceptionally helpful as we have sought to develop this work.
The marginal damage function work will allow testing of impacts from other facets of the research, and has therefore been prioritised for development.
Marginal Damage Cost Work
The team are focusing principally on further data work in relation to the marginal damage cost analysis under the IMP project. All data sets have been acquired and are now being processed for the initial analysis. An innovative approach to dispersion modelling will be trialled which will require spatial econometric techniques to reconcile spatially distributed emissions to empirical data in the form of annual average pollutant concentrations from across Ireland.
This month has also included participation in a number of energy policy and data meetings, as well as a visit to Glen Dimplex in connection with the collaborative work there on residential heating policy options.